A Predictive Model for a Reputation-Based General Surgery Residency Match and a Novel Online Calculator

Publication date: Available online 9 October 2017
Source:Journal of Surgical Education
Author(s): John T. Killian, James D. Leeper, Qiong Xu, Paul F. Sauer, John R. Porterfield
ObjectiveThis study aimed to identify medical student characteristics that predict a successful categorical match into a general surgery residency and a match based upon Doximity program rankings.DesignThis was a retrospective study that analyzed academic and personal predictors of a successful general surgery residency match.SettingThis study was set at the University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Medicine, a public medical school.ParticipantsThis study included 173 fourth-year medical students at a public medical school who matched into general surgery residency programs.MethodsOur cohort comprised students graduating from our institution between 2004 and 2015 that matched into preliminary or categorical general surgery positions. We collected academic variables and performed univariate analyses and logistic regression to examine the likelihood of specific match outcomes.ResultsOf 173 students, 132 (76%) matched into a categorical position and 41 (24%) matched into a preliminary position. Of all variables, clinical ranking quartile was most effective in predicting a categorical match (R² = 0.35). Models for a match based upon Doximity ranking lacked the same predictive power.ConclusionsThis research identifies students that are at risk for not matching into a categorical position and predicts competitiveness for certain programs. It provides a novel calculator to give applicants easily interpretable match probabilities.



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