A system dynamics model of China’s electric power structure adjustment with constraints of PM10 emission reduction

Abstract

Recently, Chinese state environmental protection administration has brought out several PM10 reduction policies to control the coal consumption strictly and promote the adjustment of power structure. Under this new policy environment, a suitable analysis method is required to simulate the upcoming major shift of China's electric power structure. Firstly, a complete system dynamics model is built to simulate China's evolution path of power structure with constraints of PM10 reduction considering both technical and economical factors. Secondly, scenario analyses are conducted under different clean-power capacity growth rates to seek applicable policy guidance for PM10 reduction. The results suggest the following conclusions. (1) The proportion of thermal power installed capacity will decrease to 67% in 2018 with a dropping speed, and there will be an accelerated decline in 2023–2032. (2) The system dynamics model can effectively simulate the implementation of the policy, for example, the proportion of coal consumption in the forecast model is 63.3% (the accuracy rate is 95.2%), below policy target 65% in 2017. (3) China should promote clean power generation such as nuclear power to meet PM10 reduction target.

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