Abstract
Objective
To model the spread of Monkeypox (MPX) in a metropolitan area for assessing the risk of possible outbreaks, and identifying essential public health measures to contain the virus spread.
Methods
The animal reservoir is the key element in the modelling of a zoonotic disease. Using a One Health approach, we model the spread of the MPX virus in humans considering potential animal hosts such as rodents (e.g., rats, mice, squirrels, chipmunks, etc.) and emphasize their role and transmission of the virus in a high-risk group, including gay and bisexual men-who-have-sex-with-men (gbMSM). From model and sensitivity analysis, we identify key public health factors and present scenarios under different transmission assumptions.
Findings
We find that the MPX virus may spill over from gbMSM high-risk groups to broader populations if efficiency of transmission increases in the higher-risk group. However, the risk of outbreak can be greatly reduced if at least 65% of symptomatic cases can be isolated and their contacts traced and quarantined. In addition, infections in an animal reservoir will exacerbate MPX transmission risk in the human population.
Conclusion
Regions or communities with a higher proportion of gbMSM individuals need greater public health attention. Tracing and quarantine (or "effective quarantine" by post-exposure vaccination) of contacts with MPX cases in high-risk groups would have a significant effect on controlling the spreading. Also, monitoring for animal infections would be prudent.
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