Modeling and Simulation in the Context of Health Technology Assessment: Review of Existing Guidance, Future Research Needs, and Validity Assessment [Internet].

Despite rigorous systematic reviews of efficacy and effectiveness of health care interventions, patients, providers and policymakers may remain in doubt about what they should do because of uncertainty, tradeoffs among benefits and harms, and conflicting preferences. Modeling and simulation studies in health care can supplement systematic reviews to increase the usefulness of the evidence summary. The aims of this report are four-fold: (1) to summarize evidence- and consensus-based guidance on the conduct and reporting of health care modeling and simulation; (2) to summarize guidance from Health Technology Assessment (HTA) groups for modeling; (3) to prioritize future research needs to improve models; and (4) to provide an overview of methods for model calibration and validation.

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