Source:Vaccine
Author(s): Lei Zhang, David G. Regan, Jason J. Ong, Manoj Gambhir, Eric P.F. Chow, Huachun Zou, Matthew Law, Jane Hocking, Christopher K. Fairley
BackgroundWe investigated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a targeted human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program for young (15–26) men who have sex with men (MSM).MethodsWe developed a compartmental model to project HPV epidemic trajectories in MSM for three vaccination scenarios: a boys program, a targeted program for young MSM only and the combination of the two over 2017–2036. We assessed the gain in quality-adjusted-life-years (QALY) in 190,000 Australian MSM.ResultsA targeted program for young MSM only that achieved 20% coverage per year, without a boys program, will prevent 49,283 (31,253–71,500) cases of anogenital warts, 191 (88–319) person-years living with anal cancer through 2017–2036 but will only stablise anal cancer incidence. In contrast, a boys program will prevent 82,056 (52,100–117,164) cases of anogenital warts, 447 (204–725) person-years living with anal cancers through 2017–2036 and see major declines in anal cancer. This can reduce 90% low- and high-risk HPV in young MSM by 2024 and 2032, respectively, but will require vaccinating ≥84% of boys. Adding a targeted program for young MSM to an existing boys program would prevent an additional 14,912 (8479–21,803) anogenital wart and 91 (42–152) person-years living with anal cancer. In combination with a boys' program, a catch-up program for young MSM will cost an additional $AUD 6788 ($4628–11,989) per QALY gained, but delaying its implementation reduced its cost-effectiveness.ConclusionsA boys program that achieved coverage of about 84% will result in a 90% reduction in HPV. A targeted program for young MSM is cost-effective if timely implemented.
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